التنبؤ الإحصائي بمقاومة الضغط للخرسانة باستخدام نماذج الانحدار الخطي وغير الخطي المتعدد المطورة بواسطة برنامج SPSS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65419/albahit.v5i3.162الكلمات المفتاحية:
concrete compressive strength، SPSS، multiple linear regression، correlation analysis، nonlinear regression، model validation، water-cement ratioالملخص
تُعد مقاومة الضغط من أهم المؤشرات المستخدمة لتقييم جودة الخرسانة، إلا أن الطرق التقليدية لتحديدها تتطلب فترة معالجة تصل إلى 28 يومًا. تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تطوير نماذج إحصائية سهلة الاستخدام للتنبؤ المبكر بمقاومة الخرسانة باستخدام برنامج SPSS.
اعتمدت الدراسة على تحليل قاعدة بيانات مكونة من 431 خلطة خرسانية، حيث تم استخدام 381 خلطة لأغراض المعايرة (Calibration) و 50 خلطة للتحقق (Validation). وقد تم تقييم ستة متغيرات رئيسية مؤثرة في مقاومة الضغط. أظهر نموذج الانحدار الخطي الكامل الذي يعتمد على المتغيرات الستة معامل تحديد (R²) بلغ 0.628، بينما أدى نموذج الانحدار غير الخطي القائم على اللوغاريتم العمري إلى تحسين ملاءمة النموذج ليصل معامل التحديد إلى 0.650، إلا أنه أظهر محدودية في القدرة على التعميم.
وأوضحت عملية التحقق المستقلة وجود هامش خطأ يتراوح بين 32–38% نتيجة عدم تجانس مجموعة البيانات المستخدمة. وفي النهاية، تبين أن محتوى الأسمنت ونسبة الماء إلى الأسمنت يمثلان أكثر العوامل تأثيرًا وأهمية في التنبؤ بمقاومة الضغط.
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